Advanced International Journal for Research

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Inflation Targeting and Food Price Dynamics in India: An Empirical Assessment (2014–2025)

Author(s) Miss. Rachana Dattatray Kolape
Country India
Abstract The flexible inflation targeting regime adopted by the Reserve Bank of India in 2016 represents a significant shift in monetary policy framework aimed at achieving price stability while supporting growth. This paper empirically assesses the impact of this regime on food price dynamics and core inflation using data from 2014 to 2025. Drawing on datasets from the RBI’s Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy, MOSPI CPI series, and World Bank commodity price indices, the analysis employs a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to examine relationships between policy variables, food prices, and overall inflation. Findings indicate that inflation targeting has helped reduce the persistence of core inflation but has had limited effectiveness in curbing food price volatility due to supply-side factors and external shocks. Impulse response functions reveal that monetary policy shocks transmit more strongly to core components than to food prices, which are influenced by global commodity trends and domestic agricultural conditions. The study contributes to the literature by providing updated evidence up to 2025, highlighting the need for integrated fiscal-monetary strategies in emerging economies.
Keywords inflation targeting, food prices, VAR model, ARDL cointegration, India.
Published In Volume 6, Issue 6, November-December 2025
Published On 2025-11-15
DOI https://doi.org/10.63363/aijfr.2025.v06i06.2064
Short DOI https://doi.org/hbbz72
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