Electricity Price Forecasting of Green Day-Ahead Market in India Using Garch Model

Author(s)	Ms. Koushiki Gupta, Dr. Mitra Goswami
Country	India
Abstract	Introduction to Electricity Market has facilitated Renewable energy trading as a hope to tackle climate change and improve India’s energy economy. Within the energy exchange, Green Day Ahead market has been studied thoroughly as it is the world’s first market that trades in only renewable energy. Hourly MCPs for 365 days have been considered and the approach used is the GARCH(1,1) Model. The hourly returns have been assumed to be a skewed-normal distribution; conditions have been fulfilled for the studied time series and the Model is conducted. The Garch Model has been found to be a robust model for this time series analysis. A risk mitigation solution for high volatility forecasting has also been provided.
Keywords	Indian Electricity Market, GDAM, Price volatility, GARCH Model
Published In	Volume 7, Issue 3, May-June 2026
Published On	2026-06-15
DOI	https://doi.org/10.63363/aijfr.2026.v07i03.6373

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