Macroeconomic Determinants of India’s Export Growth (1970–2024): A VECM and Innovation Accounting Approach

Author(s)	Dr. SHANAVAS P H, Ms. Sreya Suresh K P, Dr. JOHNSON K A
Country	India
Abstract	The study explores the dynamic relationship between India’s exports, economic growth, world exports and trade openness in the period 1970–2024 using annual time series data. The study uses cointegration and VECM frameworks and distinguishes the long-run equilibrium relationships from the short-run changes. Granger causality tests are employed to assess the directionality of the predictions. The relative impact of macroeconomic shocks and their transmission mechanisms are examined with IRFs and FEVD. The results show a steady long-run relationship among the major variables. The short run interactions and adjustments are also found to be significant. Innovation-accounting results reveal that exports are mostly driven by their own innovations over the projection horizon, but external and domestic macroeconomic shocks have measurable and durable consequences.
Keywords	Export Performance; Trade Openness; Cointegration; VECM; Granger Causality
Field	Mathematics > Economy / Commerce
Published In	Volume 7, Issue 5, September-October 2026
Published On	2026-09-07

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