Advanced International Journal for Research

E-ISSN: 3048-7641   •   Impact Factor: 9.11

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Volume 7 Issue 1
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Temporal Decomposition and Policy Levers: Analysing India's Economic Trajectory from $4T (2025) to $30T (2047)

Author(s) Dr. Darshanam Pravalika
Country India
Abstract Abstract
This study presents a rigorous temporal analysis of the economic transformation required for India to escalate its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the projected $4.0 trillion in 2025 to the ambitious $30.0 trillion by 2047. Utilizing 5-year periodic decomposition (TDA), the research establishes that achieving this scale necessitates a sustained nominal Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.6%. The core finding reveals a non-linear structural shift: a decisive reduction in the agriculture sector's share (from 15% to 5%), concurrent with a massive expansion of Industry (from 25% to 30%) and Services (from 60% to 65%). Furthermore, the analysis highlights that successful navigation of the transition hinges upon proactive human capital development and securing geopolitical and environmental resilience across the critical mid-period intervals (t1 to t3). This paper provides an essential, stage-gated policy framework for achieving the 'Viksit Bharat' vision.
Keywords Economic Transformation; GDP Growth Trajectory; India 2047; Nominal CAGR; Temporal Decomposition Analysis (TDA); Structural Change; Sectoral Shift; Agriculture Decline; Industrial Expansion; Services Growth; Human Capital Development; Demographic Transition; Geopolitical Resilience; Environmental Sustainability; Stage-Gated Policy Framework; Viksit Bharat Vision
Field Sociology > Economics
Published In Volume 7, Issue 1, January-February 2026
Published On 2026-01-08
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E-ISSN 3048-7641
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